Summary
Graham Mertz carries a 37.0 dynasty score, ranking 111 at QB. Mertz is a 25-year-old second-year quarterback with a 3-year contract remaining. He has yet to establish himself in the NFL.
Projection Rationale
Mertz’s 2025 season stats are limited, but his efficiency grade is at the 50th percentile, indicating some potential. However, his production grade is at the 0th percentile, and his contract situation with 3 years remaining is a concern. He needs to establish himself as a reliable starter to improve his dynasty value.
Injury Risk
No injury entries in 2025. Mertz is a young quarterback with a durability grade at the 75th percentile, but his age and contract status raise concerns about his injury risk profile.
Opportunity Notes
He faces competition from other quarterbacks on the Texans roster, and his role is not secure.
Scheme Fit Analysis
Nick Caley coordinates a shanahan_tree offense with a 44.9% run rate and a 61.1% shotgun rate. This scheme helps Mertz’s ceiling by providing a balanced attack, but his lack of production and experience limit his upside.
Trend Assessment
Declining
Mertz’s 2025 season stats are limited to three games, and his production has been lacking, contributing to a declining trend. His age and contract status also raise concerns about his long-term outlook.
Ceiling / Floor
Ceiling: QB3-QB5 – Mertz needs to establish himself as a reliable starter and improve his production to reach the top of this range. Floor: QB6-QB8 – Mertz’s low snap share and competition for the starting role make him a risk to fall to the bottom of this range.
Comparable Player
Trent Dilfer, 1999-2007.