Summary
Ethan Downs carries a 72.0 dynasty score, ranking 194 at DL. Downs’ 2025 season saw a 3.5 sacks per game average, and he’s entering his second year with a secure role in the Chiefs’ defense.
Projection Rationale
Downs’ 2025 stats indicate a moderate ceiling with a 3.5 sacks per game average, but a Verdict durability grade at the 75th percentile suggests he may not maintain that level of production due to injury risk. Downs has a secure role in the Chiefs’ defense with two years remaining on his contract.
Injury Risk
No injury entries in 2025. Downs’ Verdict durability grade at the 75th percentile suggests a moderate injury risk.
Opportunity Notes
Downs saw a 72.1% defensive snap share in 2025, which trended stable. His role is secure with the Chiefs, but he may face competition from younger defensive linemen in the future.
Scheme Fit Analysis
Steve Spagnuolo coordinates a 4-3 defense with a 31.4% blitz rate. The scheme should help Downs’ production with a high blitz rate and zone-heavy coverage.
Trend Assessment
Declining
Downs’ production trend is declining due to a Verdict production grade at the 35th percentile, which is below his efficiency grade at the 50th percentile.
Ceiling / Floor
Ceiling: DL3-DL4 with a 4.0 sacks per game average and consistent playing time. Floor: DL5 with decreased production due to injury or competition from younger players.
Comparable Player
Lee Roy Selmon, 1976-1984.