Summary
John Bates enters Year 6 as the Commanders’ tight end at age 28, ranked #218 in Verdict’s dynasty score (18.0, ascending trend). He posted 21.8 fantasy points in 2025 on a 50.9% offensive snap share, with a 70.0% week 10 spike and a season-high 62.0% week 14 snap.
Projection Rationale
Bates’ 50.9% snap share in 2025, up from 43.0% in week 7 and 51.0% in week 5, establishes a floor. The 21.8-point finish on 103 receiving yards and 11 targets reflects his mid-snap usage in a spread system under Kingsbury.
Injury Risk
Bates practiced fully in week 6 and week 5, and had limited participation in week 9. His injury history shows no missed games due to injury, and he logged 15 starts in 2025.
Opportunity Notes
Snap share trends up in 2025, with a season-high 70.0% in week 10 and 62.0% in week 14. Bates’ 11 targets in 2025 reflect his mid-snap usage in a system designed to exploit TE mismatches.
Scheme Fit Analysis
Kingsbury’s spread system under Dan Quinn’s oversight in Washington leverages Bates’ receiving skills with mid-snap TE usage and RPOs. The 21.8-point finish on 103 receiving yards and 11 targets in 2025 reflects his scheme fit.
Trend Assessment
Rising
Verdict’s trade-value model tags Bates as ascending, reflecting his 21.8-point finish across 15 games in 2025 and increasing snap share.
Ceiling / Floor
Ceiling clears 21.8 points if receiving targets advance past 11 and snap share holds above 50.9%. Floor tracks near 21.8 given increasing snap share and mid-snap usage in a scheme designed to exploit TE mismatches.
Comparable Player
His role as a mid-snap TE in a spread system draws comparisons to Cole Kmet from 2022–2024 Chicago — similar ascending trend, similar 50-70% snap share, similar mid-range scoring.