Summary
Theo Johnson enters Year 3 as the 25-year-old tight end anchor for the New York Giants at a dynasty score of 54.0 and ascending trend. He logged an 85.8% snap share in 2025 on a 45/74 target share, producing 528 receiving yards and 5 touchdowns — a modest but growing role in Mike Kafka’s Erhardt-Perkins system. The Giants should retain Johnson through 2026 given the lack of clear TE2 threats on their depth chart.
Projection Rationale
Johnson’s 45/74 target share on an 85.8% snap share in 2025 drives his modest but growing floor. The Erhardt-Perkins system under Kafka should continue to emphasize the tight end role, but Johnson’s target share trajectory may stabilize at the 2025 level. A 528-yard finish on 45 receptions with 5 touchdowns shows a baseline that scales in half PPR formats.
Injury Risk
Johnson’s injury history is modest, with a pair of DNPs in Week 17 and Week 18 due to non-participation in practice. Limited participation in Week 4 and full participation in Weeks 10 and 15 do not indicate a structural concern. As a non-contact position, tight end carries relatively low injury risk.
Opportunity Notes
The Giants’ 2025 season saw Johnson log 85.8% of the offense’s snaps, with a target share increase to 45/74. No clear TE2 threats exist on the depth chart. Johnson’s snap share trended up across the season, and his 20.1% target share increase over 2024 suggests a modest growth trajectory.
Scheme Fit Analysis
Kafka’s Erhardt-Perkins system emphasizes the tight end role, with 45-55% target shares in 2025. Johnson’s 528 receiving yards and 5 touchdowns on an 85.8% snap share reflect the system’s emphasis on the tight end. As Kafka’s system holds, Johnson’s floor should remain stable at the 2025 level.
Trend Assessment
Rising
Verdict’s dynasty score and ascending trend tags Johnson as on the upswing, reflecting his 45/74 target share in 2025 and a 20.1% target share increase over 2024. His 85.8% snap share also trended up across the season.
Ceiling / Floor
Ceiling clears the 528-yard finish if Johnson’s target share advances past 45/74 and his snap share increases to 90% or above. Floor tracks near 528 yards given an 85.8% snap share and an unchanged target share. A mid-season injury or limited participation is the only realistic path to meaningful regression below that line.
Comparable Player
His receiving role in Kafka’s Erhardt-Perkins system draws comparisons to Hayden Hurst from 2022 Baltimore — both players posted 45-55% target shares in an Erhardt-Perkins setup with modest to low volume expectations. Both players also saw 20-30% target share increases from the previous season.