Summary
Justin Herbert carries a 85.0 dynasty score, ranking 7 at QB. With a 26-to-13 TD-to-INT ratio and 340/512 (66.4%) completion percentage in 2025, Herbert’s production remains stable as he enters his 7th year.
Projection Rationale
Herbert’s 3,727 passing yards and 26 touchdowns in 2025 indicate a continued high level of production. His Verdict production grade at the 85th percentile and usage grade at the 85th percentile explain the gap between his efficiency and production. Herbert’s 4-year, $133.7M contract with a $52.5M APY provides role security.
Injury Risk
No injury entries in 2025. Herbert’s 90th percentile Verdict durability grade percentile and his age (28) suggest a low injury risk profile.
Opportunity Notes
Herbert’s snap share percentage was stable at 97.6% in 2025. With new OC Mike McDaniel, the Chargers may shift to a zone run-heavy offense, which could impact Herbert’s ceiling.
Scheme Fit Analysis
Chris O’Leary coordinates a multiple offense with a focus on zone-heavy coverage, which may limit Herbert’s ceiling, as his production is heavily reliant on the pass game.
Trend Assessment
Rising. Herbert’s efficiency grade (65th percentile) and production (85th percentile) are improving with age.
Ceiling / Floor
Ceiling: Herbert has a QB3-QB5 finish range if he maintains his 2025 production levels and the Chargers continue to pass at a high rate. Floor: Herbert has a QB8-QB12 finish range if his snap share decreases or he struggles with efficiency.
Comparable Player
Dan Marino, 1983-94.