Summary
Justin Ellis carries a 2.0 dynasty score, ranking 1171 at DL.
Projection Rationale
Ellis’ 2023 stats show 1.5 sacks and 2.5 pressures in 5 games. However, his overall efficiency remains a concern, as his Verdict production grade at the 15th percentile suggests a significant gap between his production and efficiency. Furthermore, with 0 years remaining on his contract, Ellis’ role security is uncertain, making it challenging for him to maintain a consistent workload. The Falcons’ defensive scheme often employs Ellis in pass-rushing situations, which limits his ceiling.
Injury Risk
No injury entries in 2023. Given his age and Verdict durability grade at the 23rd percentile, Ellis has a high injury risk profile, which is a significant concern for dynasty owners.
Opportunity Notes
There is competition for the DL role, and Ellis will need to perform well to secure a starting spot.
Scheme Fit Analysis
The Falcons’ defensive scheme often employs Ellis in pass-rushing situations, which can be a drawback for his overall performance.
Trend Assessment
Declining. His snap share has decreased, and his Verdict durability grade at the 23rd percentile indicates a concerning trend in his playing time.
Ceiling / Floor
Justin Ellis’ ceiling is a DL4 finish range if he can regain his 2022 form, with a need for increased snap share and pressure production. His floor is a DL6 finish range, with a Verdict trade value of 39, indicating he is a mid-tier asset.
Comparable Player
Bryant Young, 1994-2000.