Summary
Josh Downs carries an 83.0 dynasty score, ranking 50th at WR. At 24 years old and entering his 4th year, Downs’ production is trending downwards.
Projection Rationale
Downs’ 566 receiving yards and 58/88 target share indicate a stable target share but decreasing efficiency. His Verdict grades, with a production grade at the 60th percentile and an efficiency Verdict grade at the 46th percentile, further support this decline. Downs has 3 years remaining on his contract, which should provide stability but may not be enough to offset his decreasing production.
Injury Risk
No injury entries in 2025. At 24 years old, Downs’ durability grade is at the 92nd percentile, indicating minimal injury risk.
Opportunity Notes
Downs’ snap share trended up in 2025, with a season average of 60.6%. However, his target share was stable at 66.4%, and with the Colts’ spread system, Downs’ role is secure.
Scheme Fit Analysis
Jim Bob Cooter coordinates a spread offense with a 71.4% shotgun rate, which should provide Downs with opportunities to accumulate targets. However, the scheme’s high pass rate may also lead to more competition for targets.
Trend Assessment
Declining
Downs’ dynasty score and Verdict grades are in decline, with his production and efficiency Verdict grades ranking in the 60th and 46th percentiles.
Ceiling / Floor
Ceiling: WR3-WR5, with a strong season and increased efficiency. This would require a significant increase in production, particularly in efficiency.
Floor: WR6, with a decrease in snap share and target share. This would be consistent with a declining trend in Verdict grades and a lower trade value.
Comparable Player
Anquan Boldin, 2003-2007.